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Change? Not in Vermont

By Shay Totten

Posted November 7, 2008

After all the dust settled in Vermont early Wednesday morning, the major realignment that occurred nationally with the historic election of Sen. Barack Obama as the 44th president didn’t seem to jive with election results in Vermont.

In fact, there is little change in the Vermont political scene — a reverse version of “throw the bums out.” They’re our bums, we like them and so we throw them back in.

Treasurer Jeb Spaulding, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, Auditor of Accounts Tom Salmon (who is serving in Iraq), Attorney General Bill Sorrell, and US Rep. Peter Welch all headed to easy wins despite having some nominal opposition.

Was it ever really in question? Not really, but what remained in question was if the Left could get enough votes to keep Douglas below 50%. And, no, they couldn't. Even with two candidates in the race they couldn't do it.

Incumbent Gov. Jim Douglas is held steady and safely exceeded the 50% threshold needed to keep the race from going to the Legislature by about 4%. It may be the lowest percentage he’s received yet since being elected, but it’s academic. Democratic challenger Gaye Symington and Independent Anthony Pollina came in a distant second with both bringing in about 22% of the vote.

Douglas benefits largely from being a well-known political figure who has been campaigning in Vermont every two years for decades — he knows the people, the places, and can chat about our shared history. He’s also not seen as the kind of Republican that has taken control of the national party. Though more conservative in some respects, he is in the mold of former Governor and US Senator George Aiken than that of President George W. Bush.

Vermonters are OK with that kind of Republican, as evident by the fact that Vermonters gave Obama his second-largest victory (after Hawaii) over his opponent, and Douglas his largest.

Listening to their concession speeches, I was struck by how Symington took time to thank her staff and volunteers, and let critics know that she put herself out there on the front line and had no problem taking the hits — comparing herself to her son’s reaction to her “are you alright?” comments as a mother. Still, she took her shots at Douglas for running “negative” ads and faulting his leadership of the state.

Pollina’s concession speech went even further than Symington in his criticism of the governor and the propping up of his own poor showing. In fact, his rabble-rousing oration sounded like the first stump speech of the 2010 governor’s race than a concession speech in 2008. We'll see how that goes for him in the coming months as there is likely to be plenty of discussion on the Left about how best to unseat a popular incumbent Republican in an ever-left leaning state.

What is clear, however, is that Vermonters like the current balance of power in Montpelier. An increasingly liberalized House, tempered by moderates in the Senate and a center-right governor.

Democrats, in the end, held on to their significant majority — even picking up a seat to extend their reach to 94 out of 150 seats. Meanwhile, the GOP lost a seat and are now holding at 48 seats. One independent, who the GOP hopes will align with them on key issues, was elected. The Progressive Party, which held eight seats going into the election, saw two of their incumbents get beaten — Dexter Randall’s seat in North Troy went to a Republican, and Chris Pearson’s seat in Burlington went to a Democrat. They picked up one seat in Brattleboro, which means they now have two state reps from one of the bluest towns in Vermont (and one of the few to vote heavily for Symington).

There are four recounts likely to occur, with GOP candidates trailing in each of those races.

The Dems have picked off a couple of key Republican seats in Bennington, Rutland, Caledonia, and Chittenden counties. Meanwhile, the GOP picked up seats in Franklin and Chittenden counties.

On the Senate side, there are no overall number changes: Democrats hold a 23-7 edge. Former state auditor Randy Brock won a seat in Franklin County for the GOP while Democrat Matthew Choate picked up a senate seat in Caledonia County. That seat had been formerly held by a Republican.

As a whole, the GOP had hoped to pick up four or five House seats and a Senate seat, but fell short.

Still, party leaders were not glum.

“If I were the Democrats, I’d be wondering what happened?” said Tayt Brooks, the party’s executive director. “In a year with such an Obama tide, I would think the Democrats would have carried more districts.”

The Dems, however, were not displeased.  They picked up two seats, and were able to unseat two long-term incumbent Republicans ­— Joyce Errecart in Shelburne and Judy Livingston in Dorset. In the latter case, the Democrat is only up by five votes and a recount will occur.

In the end, they still have a commanding control of the House and Senate along with all major statewide and federal offices, save for governor and lieutenant governor. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, though not a Democrat, is supported by Dems.

On top of that, the Democrats note that two conservative Democrats who upheld gubernatorial vetoes are now gone — George “Ron” Allard D-St. Albans Town and Jon Anderson, D-Montpelier.

That means they potentially have 101 or 102 votes to override a veto, and those votes are stronger than in years past.

For months to come the issue will be whether the “left” in Vermont can, or wants, to coalesce behind a single candidate.

For his part, UVM political science professor Garrison Nelson thinks the Democrats should let Pollina be the one to challenge Douglas in two years.

“The Democrats should treat this time as the Douglas era,” said Nelson, “and realize that there is no one in line to succeed him. He’ll run for another term or two and then it’ll be over and they’ll win the governorship and they’ll control that office for a long time afterward.”

As history shows, the left did unite (or not) behind former Burlington Mayor Peter Clavelle in 2004 and Douglas still won handily. Perhaps rather than finding a single candidate, they just need to find better candidates. What a concept.

Already 2010 is shaping up to be a busy electoral year as Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy, our senior senator, will be up for reelection as will Rep. Welch. And, we’ll be back at it with all of our statewide, House and Senate candidates.

Do you get the feeling that 2010 will come a lot sooner than we think?

Epilogue

As a journalist, one of your roles is to keep a certain distance from your subject so you can observe and document what unfolds. In other words, don’t be the story — just come back with the story.

But, on election night — standing in front of a giant screen inside the Hilton with a small, but loud, group of Democratic Party onlookers to listen to President-Elect Barack Obama's victory speech — I had to put aside the notebook and just be a citizen of the United States. For even a political curmudgeon like myself, it was an emotional moment.

This moment, however, unlike 9/11, the assassination of JFK and other historical moments where we ask, “Do you remember where you were?”

At 40, I’m of Obama’s generation. We were the “X” generation, the “slackers” as our elders called us — disengaged, listless, unfocused, selfish and harboring no civic pride. Yet, it’s from the ranks of my generation that Obama has risen.

Still, the emotion of watching Obama’s speech did not well up from the fact that I personally wanted Obama to win. My kids took care of that in the family.

My three young kids — 12, 10, and 4 — were paying witness (and close attention) to an historic presidential election, and they constantly pleaded their case for an Obama victory to anyone who would listen — even a grandmother who was a McCain supporter.

These kids didn’t need me to tell them what it meant, historically and culturally, to elect Obama president. His candidacy inspired them to start counting down the years to when they'll get to cast their first ballot for president.

As I watched Obama’s speech and the tearful crowd, I couldn't help think of my kids, and sharing this news with them in the morning.

Sure enough, at 6 AM, just a few hours after I had finally unwound and fallen asleep, our 12-year-old son came downstairs whispering, "Who won?" After we told him, he quickly passed on the news to his 10-year-old brother. Even our four-year-old — after waking up and telling me, "I saw you on TV last night" asked, "Did Obama win?" When I told her that he did, she gave a very emphatic, "Yes!"

After a quick breakfast, the trio sat in front of the laptop to watch Obama's victory speech with their mom. Not likely the last time they'll want to watch it.

They'll be in good company.